Macau’s mass to improve through 2022

According to financial firm Bernstein, mass is set to be pushed in Macau over the next five years and Melco and Wynn are set to benefit.

Professional tax and accounting firm Bernstein Financial Services Inc released a note on Tuesday projecting a mass improvement in Macau thanks to new properties success, transportation infrastructure improvements and a solid Chinese premium consumer. According to the document, Melco and Wynn Macau are set to get benefited by said growth and are the top picks for the brokerage in the sector.

Bernstein revealed it has revised its estimates for 2017-2022 CAGR to 8 percent for Total GGR, 6 percent for VIP and 11 percent for mass. Furthermore, the industry-wide EBITDA is projected to reach an 11 percent CAGR on better business mix and improving operating leverage.

Deutsche Bank agreed with Bernstein and recommended to buy at Wynn Resorts as it expects an acceleration of capital returns from its Macau venture. According to them, “the potential exists for dividends” from Wynn Macau are set to “triple over the next to years (2017E US$422 million / 2019E US$1.25 billion).”

“At a high level, VIP business remains consistent, as well capitalised junkets continue to exhibit strong demand trends and normal / healthy repayment cycles. Management remains of the view that market growth is less relevant over the near to medium term, as it believes it can continue to take share as the Palace ramps, specifically in the premium mass segment, and the VIP environment remains strong,” said Deutsche Bank.