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Understanding NFL Betting Lines: A Beginner’s Guide to Spread, Odds, and Totals

Published

1 month ago

August 12, 2024

Reading Time: 5 minutes

Every week, several millions of NFL betters in the United States are waiting for the latest NFL betting lines. Every time they hunt for their online betting sites, they are displayed with series of numbers and several choices. This brings into question the source of these lines, what causes shifting of the NFL lines and how one can exploit this. In this article, we will decipher the origins of NFL odds and answer such questions as well as many others.

Who Decides NFL Odds?

Picking the point spread totals and money lines for NFL games week in and week out is not as simple to identify and requires much more detail to go into. Much like even the most experienced football bettors would barely know about line movement or the background of weekly NFL odds. The first figures that the bettors view every week are from a team of oddsmakers who meet to set the opening line for every game. These sports books employ mathematical models, computer algorithms and simulation models as well as a number of statistics-based programs besides applying their experience and day-to-day market observation to generate these odds. Nonetheless, the reader should remind himself or herself that, although computers help to leverage the odds, the odds themselves are mainly a work of man.

The involvement of the human aspect in establishing odds implies that there is room for misinterpretation and that this is an area of typical high rolled handicappers depend upon more than any other group, the so-called ‘square’ accounts for the large number of recreational bettors. As can be seen there is a sheer avalanche of information to analyze when trying to handicap an NFL game and so human beings are bound to make mistakes.

Both the conventional stationary operations or office-based sports writing and the online intermediaries and bookmakers require news service and software to track such information as the latest injuries, coaching strategies, weather conditions, and every other influence possibly affecting the sporting events. Since most sportsbooks use similar services, lines tend to move in tandem throughout the day due to late-breaking news or betting trends.

When Are NFL Lines Released?

The first NFL sportsbooks usually display their weekly lines starting Sunday evening for the subsequent week’s matches. However, some games may not be given odds at first especially if the teams, or their upcoming opponents, are in Sunday Night or Monday Night face-offs.

Why Do NFL Lines Move?

Once the initial line is out there, the wise guys and the square bets will influence the movement of the line from the morning till the week’s end. However, line movements can also happen for other reasons other than the betting action and these include but not limited to, the weather condition, the starting quarterback, and any form of player’s injury. While there may be cases where a bookmaker gets privileged information on NFL games, he gets the news at the same instance as the public but is always updated with the latest news. This is the reason why they aim at shifting the odds before the public and sharp participants in the market get a chance to factor this information in.

Is Balancing Action the Sole Focus for Sportsbooks?

This is partially true, but it can seldom be done. In an ideal world the sportsbooks keep risk to a minimum and capture the vig and use it to ensure action on both sides of the line to take their 10% cut. Still, most games see skewed betting and even after large shifts of the line, the public may still favor one side or team. Very often sharps may have their choice focused on one side while recreational bettors may bet on the opposite side. There are times when sharps and squares’ action on a particular team or player will sync, making it both a gain and a loss for the books. In so doing, they can either gain immensely if the side that has received a lesser bet wins, but at the same time they can also lose a lot in the event the favored side wins. If a large amount of money is invested in the number, normally by sharp bettors, it is a clear sign that the number was bad. As a result, the sportsbooks modify the line on the side that few people are betting on in order to attract more bets. Even the established online and offline sports books can have their off moments with some even going out of business. If they roll out poor lines or are unable to change them as soon as sharp activity starts, they attract the attention of the best handicappers in the betting arena. This is very difficult for any sportsbook since successful and professional handicappers feast on the poor lines of the books to make big profits.

Should I Act on a Line Movement?

Yes, the barriers can be maximized and minimized depending on several factors. Teams that are moving in your favor might be the best to place a bet for particularly when the lines are shifting. However, if you think it has all the signs to keep on trending upward, it might be smarter to wait than to enter the market. On the other hand, if a line of your preference is constantly changing in a direction you do not like but you wish to place a bet before it reaches a certain position you do not want it to reach, then betting immediately might be appropriate. One must not be carried away by movements in the lines because without a deep analysis, one cannot have a clue as to why a line has shifted in that direction. Moreover, if you have no opinion about the game and don’t think it worthy of being played to watch, don’t bet on the move just because the line has dropped/risen. Pursuing wise guy steam plays can be a good idea; however, since any sportsbook worth their salt will know that certain numbers are out, bettors only have a brief timeframe in which to get key numbers.

What Is the Most Effective Strategy for Beating NFL Odds Set by Oddsmakers?

The process of beating the bookies is not easy but not impossible either in the long run. For any bettor to succeed in beating the oddsmakers entails the need to come up with the best line in relation to the market. An example of how it can work to your advantage is that when you get a side or total that is better than what most bettors have got, it becomes easier to win. Indeed, you can obtain higher values while betting that can contribute to the distinction between a loser and a profitable gambler.

That of course requires excellent handicapping, a clear understanding of the NFL, and prowess in line shopping. Sportsbooks do not even give actual 50/50 which can only mean that they will take a 10% or more commission from the bet. In this regard, the bettor should isolate sides and totals on which the odds are in his favor more than 50%. The percentage of bets you need to win to break even or be profitable varies depending on the price you’re paying, but the goal remains constant: constantly look for the best opportunity to gamble that yields high odds.

To sustainably keep the NFL capped, a person has to open his mind and work in a different way that most casual sports bettors would not or could not do. For me personally, it was when I started assessing the betting markets and actively using the concept of line shopping.

Making a couple of accounts or tracking game lines in many books is one of the most effective strategies for looking for the best price on a game. It is important for you to know that some books are slow to change their lines when other books correct the market and take advantage of that. Online sportsbooks often worry about the ‘sharp’ player – the one who knows markets and odds and is able to always take the best price. Combined with this, it is possible to make a really good handicapper, thus making an NFL handicapping strategy a weapon with which the sportsbooks themselves can be brought to their knees.

Related Topics:latest-news NFL NFL betting lines

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Vibra Gaming to celebrate Betsul success at SBC Lisbon 2024

Published

6 hours ago

September 18, 2024

Peter Tolan

Reading Time: 2 minutes

Go-to LatAm provider will showcase how its technology and content is powering one of Brazil’s fastest growing betting and gaming brand

Vibra Gaming and its Vibra Solutions platform division will celebrate its success in Brazil at SBC Lisbon on 24th to 26th September by showcasing its partnership with Betsul, one of the country’s fastest-growing brands.

The LatAm region’s ‘go-to’ content and platform developer has partnered with the operator since 2022, just two years after it was founded, including developing a bespoke platform, powering its entire offering, and providing it with localized game-changing content.

The long-standing Vibra-Betsul partnership began when Betsul chose Vibra to develop an advanced platform technology to power its brand. The Vibra Solutions team worked in close partnership with Betsul to assess its needs and began work on a dedicated, flexible and customisable platform that continues to deliver outstanding results today, much of which will be on show at SBC Lisbon.

This was followed by Vibra’s design of a pioneering product for the Brazilian brand entitled ‘Scratch-a-Lot’, a unique instant-win game that was adapted to Federal Government lottery regulations where only certain game types could be offered to players.

Vibra Gaming will also celebrate its recent licensing success at the show following the news that it is set to become one of the first providers to gain certification for its casino platform and sportsbook technology in Brazil.

Vibra has already secured GLI certification needed to meet Brazil’s regulatory standards and is currently working with certifying laboratories to complete additional requirements.

Fernando Garita, CEO, Betsul, said: “Working with Vibra has been a success and we’re delighted with the progress we’ve made since we started. The team is always responsive, speaks our language in more ways than one, is highly experienced, and knows precisely what our players want. All of this combined means we have a technology partner who we can trust and we know will continue to deliver great results.”

Ramiro Atucha, CEO, Vibra Gaming, said: “Betsul has been a great to work with ever since we began two years ago and it’s a real pleasure to be able to shine a light on some of our joint efforts, particularly on the platform side where we’re proud of what we’ve achieved.

“Betsul was one of the first brands to believe in us and what we’re trying to do in designing and delivering a highly flexible and customizable platform for forward-thinking operators, and we’re very grateful for the faith they’ve shown in Vibra.”

Vibra Gaming will exhibit at SBC Lisbon 2024 at stand no. B550. Book a meeting with the team today! Contact: [email protected]

Latest News

ZITROS’ MEGA LOUNGE IS NOW FEATURED AT TRILENIUM CASINO IN ARGENTINA

Published

7 hours ago

September 18, 2024

Peter Tolan

Reading Time: < 1 minute

Zitro, a leading global gaming provider, in partnership with the prestigious Boldt Group, announces the launch of Mega Lounge at the Trilenium Casino, located in the province of Buenos Aires, Argentina. This innovative concept, which has generated great anticipation in the market, offers players a unique communal experience.

In a dedicated area of the casino, Mega Lounge features a variety of Zitro games and cabinets, all interconnected to the MEGA jackpot, which is celebrated by all players participating in the Lounge’s Zitro machines.

Thanks to the number of machines contributing to the jackpot, Mega Lounge ensures a high frequency of jackpot hits, while providing a highly rewarding communal gaming experience for players. Additionally, the diversity of available games, which includes classics like Link King, Link Me, 88 Link, Mighty Hammer, and Energy Link among others, allows the Trilenium Casino to offer its customers—through Zitro’s 30 GLARE cabinets—a wide range of options to suit each player’s preferences.

Jose Pallota, General Manager of Trilenium Casino, Boldt Group, commented: “We are more than satisfied with the excellent performance that Mega Lounge has had at the Trilenium Casino and with the great reception from our customers. We are confident in continuing to work with Zitro to make Trilenium a reference casino for players in Buenos Aires.”

For her part, Alejandra Burato, Regional Director for Latin America at Zitro, commented: “We are very grateful for the trust that the Boldt Group has placed in Zitro once again. From now on, their customers will be able to enjoy the unique experience of the Mega Lounge and our proven performance games. We are confident that this new addition will contribute to the success of the casino, as it has in other markets.”

Industry News

A deep dive into generative AI

Published

15 hours ago

September 18, 2024

George Miller

Reading Time: 4 minutes

Nick McDonald, Account Director at Fujitsu, takes a closer look at the revolutionary technology and says it should not be feared if used in the right way.

The topic of AI is dominating conversations across the industry right now.

Businesses understand that it can have a seismic impact on all aspects of their operations, from internal processes and procedures to the solutions, tools and services they provide to customers.

Of course, that impact can be both positive and negative, and while there has been a lot of hype around the potential of AI concerns have been raised, too.

This has left many organisations – and, indeed, the global markets – a little nervous about AI and unsure how they should approach the technology.

It’s important to understand there are different types of artificial intelligence, with each type having its own use cases. This includes but is not limited to:

Narrow AI
General AI
Super AI
Reactive machines
Limited memory
Theory of mind
Self aware

The category of AI that most are interested in is Narrow AI and in particular, the Generative AI that sits within this category of artificial intelligence.

But what do we actually mean by Generative AI?

Generative AI – a simple definition:

Generative AI can create new data including texts, images, videos and more. It does this by learning the structure and patterns of its training data to generate new ideas with similar characteristics.

It can be training to understand human language, programming languages, art, chemistry, biology, law and countless other complex subjects.

Large AI models power Generative AI. Often referred to as foundation models, they can perform a wide variety of tasks including summarization, classification and answering queries.

This makes it ideal for things like chatbots, creating media assets, design and product development.

ChatGPT catapulted Generative AI into the mainstream:

ChatGPT is the most well-known example of how Generative AI can be used.

Its rise has been nothing short of meteoric, reaching 100 million users in just two months (Facebook took 54 months to reach the same milestone).

ChatGPT is essentially a chatbot that runs on the foundation of large language models (LLMs), trained on vast amounts of data to produce texts that humans can understand.

Users ask a question and ChatGPT breaks down the query into smaller components to analyse their meaning and to determine what the user is really asking it to do.

It then returns words and sentences it predicts will base answer the query, based on the data it has been trained on.

Generative AI – the risks:

While ChatGPT may seem like a useful tool that, if nothing else, is great fun to use, it also highlights some of the concerns surrounding Generative AI.

This includes the accuracy of the outputs being generated, inconsistent output, bias, a lack of explainability and even threats to security, privacy and intellectual property.

There’s a growing number of examples of people using tools like ChatGPT and finding themselves in hot water but one of my favourites is that of a lawyer who used it to search for legal precedents in a case they were working on.

The lawyer typed their query into ChatGPT – thankfully being smart enough to not include specific information about the case – and it returned information showing that there were legal precedents.

They then instructed ChatGPT to compile the information in a document to submit to the court.

The issue was that the information ChatGPT returned was false, something the judge picked up on after reading the document submitted by the lawyer and undertaking their own research into the legal precedents presented.

When the judge was unable to find any such cases, they put this to the lawyer who came clean about using ChatGPT to search for legal precedents, but then not checking what it returned.

The lawyer was ultimately struck off – the best possible result because had they included information about the case in their ChatGPT search, they would have faced a lengthy prison sentence for breaching confidentially.

This is because ChatGPT is a public service that consumes information as well as shares it.

Don’t fear Generative AI:

But this shouldn’t stop organisations from embracing the power of Generative AI and the clear benefits it can bring to their operations.

From streamlining game development to improving customer support, there are many ways online gambling businesses can harness its potential to drive growth.

The way we have gone about this is to create a chatbot similar to ChatGPT that organisations can use with confidence. It works similarly to ChatGPT but instead of using publicly available data, it sits on top of the company’s data warehouse.

This allows teams and employees to ask questions and queries and have answers generated based on the proprietary data that foundation models have been fed on.

This data can be siloed within the warehouse, with individuals and teams given specific levels of access – the marketing team doesn’t need to be able to ask questions of the same data sets as the CFO and CEO, for example.

The use cases for a Private GPT are endless but include being able to ask any question, chat with company data, find new answers and insights, foster deeper collaboration, jointly generate insight and evaluate results and decision support systems.

Of course, this is just one way that Generative AI can be used but demonstrates how its capabilities can be harnessed safely and without any negative repercussions.

But as the industry gets to grips with the technology, many more will emerge and undoubtedly change the game for all stakeholders.