Understanding NFL Betting Lines: A Beginner’s Guide to Spread, Odds, and Totals

Every week, several millions of NFL betters in the United States are waiting for the latest NFL betting lines. Every time they hunt for their online betting sites, they are displayed with series of numbers and several choices. This brings into question the source of these lines, what causes shifting of the NFL lines and how one can exploit this. In this article, we will decipher the origins of NFL odds and answer such questions as well as many others.

Who Decides NFL Odds?

Picking the point spread totals and money lines for NFL games week in and week out is not as simple to identify and requires much more detail to go into. Much like even the most experienced football bettors would barely know about line movement or the background of weekly NFL odds. The first figures that the bettors view every week are from a team of oddsmakers who meet to set the opening line for every game. These sports books employ mathematical models, computer algorithms and simulation models as well as a number of statistics-based programs besides applying their experience and day-to-day market observation to generate these odds. Nonetheless, the reader should remind himself or herself that, although computers help to leverage the odds, the odds themselves are mainly a work of man.

The involvement of the human aspect in establishing odds implies that there is room for misinterpretation and that this is an area of typical high rolled handicappers depend upon more than any other group, the so-called ‘square’ accounts for the large number of recreational bettors. As can be seen there is a sheer avalanche of information to analyze when trying to handicap an NFL game and so human beings are bound to make mistakes.

Both the conventional stationary operations or office-based sports writing and the online intermediaries and bookmakers require news service and software to track such information as the latest injuries, coaching strategies, weather conditions, and every other influence possibly affecting the sporting events. Since most sportsbooks use similar services, lines tend to move in tandem throughout the day due to late-breaking news or betting trends.

When Are NFL Lines Released?

The first NFL sportsbooks usually display their weekly lines starting Sunday evening for the subsequent week’s matches. However, some games may not be given odds at first especially if the teams, or their upcoming opponents, are in Sunday Night or Monday Night face-offs.

Why Do NFL Lines Move?

Once the initial line is out there, the wise guys and the square bets will influence the movement of the line from the morning till the week’s end. However, line movements can also happen for other reasons other than the betting action and these include but not limited to, the weather condition, the starting quarterback, and any form of player’s injury. While there may be cases where a bookmaker gets privileged information on NFL games, he gets the news at the same instance as the public but is always updated with the latest news. This is the reason why they aim at shifting the odds before the public and sharp participants in the market get a chance to factor this information in.

Is Balancing Action the Sole Focus for Sportsbooks?

This is partially true, but it can seldom be done. In an ideal world the sportsbooks keep risk to a minimum and capture the vig and use it to ensure action on both sides of the line to take their 10% cut. Still, most games see skewed betting and even after large shifts of the line, the public may still favor one side or team. Very often sharps may have their choice focused on one side while recreational bettors may bet on the opposite side. There are times when sharps and squares’ action on a particular team or player will sync, making it both a gain and a loss for the books. In so doing, they can either gain immensely if the side that has received a lesser bet wins, but at the same time they can also lose a lot in the event the favored side wins. If a large amount of money is invested in the number, normally by sharp bettors, it is a clear sign that the number was bad. As a result, the sportsbooks modify the line on the side that few people are betting on in order to attract more bets. Even the established online and offline sports books can have their off moments with some even going out of business. If they roll out poor lines or are unable to change them as soon as sharp activity starts, they attract the attention of the best handicappers in the betting arena. This is very difficult for any sportsbook since successful and professional handicappers feast on the poor lines of the books to make big profits.

Should I Act on a Line Movement?

Yes, the barriers can be maximized and minimized depending on several factors. Teams that are moving in your favor might be the best to place a bet for particularly when the lines are shifting. However, if you think it has all the signs to keep on trending upward, it might be smarter to wait than to enter the market. On the other hand, if a line of your preference is constantly changing in a direction you do not like but you wish to place a bet before it reaches a certain position you do not want it to reach, then betting immediately might be appropriate. One must not be carried away by movements in the lines because without a deep analysis, one cannot have a clue as to why a line has shifted in that direction. Moreover, if you have no opinion about the game and don’t think it worthy of being played to watch, don’t bet on the move just because the line has dropped/risen. Pursuing wise guy steam plays can be a good idea; however, since any sportsbook worth their salt will know that certain numbers are out, bettors only have a brief timeframe in which to get key numbers.

What Is the Most Effective Strategy for Beating NFL Odds Set by Oddsmakers?

The process of beating the bookies is not easy but not impossible either in the long run. For any bettor to succeed in beating the oddsmakers entails the need to come up with the best line in relation to the market. An example of how it can work to your advantage is that when you get a side or total that is better than what most bettors have got, it becomes easier to win. Indeed, you can obtain higher values while betting that can contribute to the distinction between a loser and a profitable gambler.

That of course requires excellent handicapping, a clear understanding of the NFL, and prowess in line shopping. Sportsbooks do not even give actual 50/50 which can only mean that they will take a 10% or more commission from the bet. In this regard, the bettor should isolate sides and totals on which the odds are in his favor more than 50%. The percentage of bets you need to win to break even or be profitable varies depending on the price you’re paying, but the goal remains constant: constantly look for the best opportunity to gamble that yields high odds.

To sustainably keep the NFL capped, a person has to open his mind and work in a different way that most casual sports bettors would not or could not do. For me personally, it was when I started assessing the betting markets and actively using the concept of line shopping.

Making a couple of accounts or tracking game lines in many books is one of the most effective strategies for looking for the best price on a game. It is important for you to know that some books are slow to change their lines when other books correct the market and take advantage of that. Online sportsbooks often worry about the ‘sharp’ player – the one who knows markets and odds and is able to always take the best price. Combined with this, it is possible to make a really good handicapper, thus making an NFL handicapping strategy a weapon with which the sportsbooks themselves can be brought to their knees.