Macau’s gross gaming revenue could drop down this month beyond expectations

In a new research note, Brokerage Bernstein disclosed that the Gross Gaming Revenue could be weaker than what is anticipated this month.

Brokerage Sanford C. Bernstein Ltd, the investment research and institutional asset management company revised its March forecast for Macau’s GGR and argued that the figures are on track to post growth of 9 to 12 percent, lower than the original estimations due to weaker-than-expected month-to-date results.

Analysts Vitaly Umansky, Zhen Gong and Cathy Huang said: “Assuming a GGR average daily rate of MOP750 million [US$92.9 million] to MOP790 million for the remaining days of the month, we estimate March GGR to a range of MOP23.1 billion and MOP23.9 billion, an estimated year-on-year increase in March of 9 percent to 12 percent, revised down from prior estimate.”

The team announced last week that GGR in the city would elevate by 12 percent consecutively for March’s full operations. The analysts said that GGR growth could surprise on the upside in March. “Several junket spring dinners will be held later this month which should increase GGR run rate above the current month-to-date trend,” it added.

Moreover, brokerage Nomura said that by segment, “month to date we estimate that: average daily VIP volume is down approximately 10 percent to 15 per cent versus the average in February; VIP hold percentage is approximately 2.8 percent, below the expected “normal” hold rate of approximately 2.85 percent; and mass GGR/day is tracking down approximately 10 percent sequentially.”