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Football is back: Man City are hot EPL favorites, but look to the Saudi Pro League for betting value
- Cloudbet data analysis identifies surprises in Saudi league title odds
- Saudi Pro League bolstered over summer transfer season by top international talent
August 9, 2023 — Manchester City are the overwhelming favorites to win a fourth straight EPL title, but for value, analysis from leading crypto casino and sportsbook Cloudbet suggests football fans should look further afield – to Saudi Arabia.
Thanks to the influx of top names from the EPL and other European leagues, the Saudi Pro League has emerged as a competitive space for bettors, according to research by Cloudbet traders. The four teams recently bought by the state’s Public Investment Fund are all in with a chance of the title, according to the study, which looked at positive or negative changes from the transfers to team ratings.
Newly promoted Al Ahli have made the most impactful moves, with an expected addition of more than 2.5 goals per game, the most of any team in the league. Allan Saint-Maximin will add the equivalent of 0.65 of a goal per game, supported by strong contributions from fellow transfers Riyad Mahrez, Roberto Firmino and Franck Kessie, according to Cloudbet.
Even though they’re new to the top division, Cloudbet’s analysis has given Al Ahli Saudi the fourth-highest team rating in the league, belying the squad’s title odds (18.5/+1754). That’s not the only surprise: Cloudbet’s team ratings have current league third-favorites Al Hilal ahead of second favorites Al Nassr FC.
Saudi Pro League Team Rating Changes
Ranking | Team | 2022/23 rating* | 2023/24 rating* | Title odds |
1. | Al Ittihad | 0.20 | 0.0 (top) | 2.87 (+187) |
2. | Al Hilal | 0.35 | 0.10 | 3.81 (+281) |
3. | Al Nassr | 0.00 (top) | 0.15 | 3.63 (+263) |
4. | Al Ahli | 1.10 | 0.30 | 18.5 (+1754) |
5. | Al Ettifaq | 1.20 | 1.65 | 18.5 (+1754) |
Data analysis and odds courtesy of Cloudbet (current as of Aug. 9, 2023)
* Cloudbet’s team rating: The top team’s rank is denoted by 0.0 with the other team scores reflecting their goal per game handicap
“Taking last season’s team ratings as a starting point, we added on to each club the positive impact of this summer’s transfers,” a spokesperson from Cloudbet said. “The team ratings that we’ve devised do cast a different light on what the odds indicate. There’s plenty of value for the savvy bettor to unlock this season.”
Cloudbet’s ratings and odds do agree on the main title contender: Last year’s champion, Al Ittihad from Jeddah. This summer, Al Ittihad added Karim Benzema, N’Golo Kante and Fabinho, who are expected to add 1.7 goals per game to a squad that already boasts Abderrazak Hamdallah, the Golden Boot winner in three of the last five years.
“We decided that the addition of Karim Benzema was the single most impactful transfer of the summer,” the Cloudbet spokesperson said. “One thing to be taken into consideration, though, is whether this will destabilize a settled, winning team.”
Title contenders
Last year’s runners up Al Nassr have made good signings in Marcelo Brozovic and Sadio Mane (0.8 goal per game, between the pair), but a lot will depend on whether Cristiano Ronaldo has regained his fitness over the summer. The Portuguese star looked out of shape and decidedly off pace towards the end of last season.
Al Hilal may see an increase in yellow cards as a result of Ruben Neves and Sergej Milinkovic-Savic joining, but their midfield can now hold its own against almost any club in world football. Neves, Milinikovic-Savic, and Malcom are worth a 1.4 goal uplift to the team, according to Cloudbet research. With Odion Ighalo bolstering the supply lines up front, the club should run close to last year’s winners.
“We expect to see Saudi Arabia’s famous old rivalry between its two most-storied clubs, Riyadh’s Al Hilal and Jeddah’s Al Ittihad, play out once again,” the Cloudet spokesperson said.
Al Ahli is the fourth team to benefit from the Saudi Public Investment Fund millions. The addition of Mahrez, Saint-Maximin, Firmino, and Kessie plus Edouard Mendy in goal, and Matthias Jaissle as coach, has bolstered their team by close to 3 extra goals.
Looking at the rest of the field – Steven Gerrard’s Al-Ettifaq FC may struggle beyond mid table. They were defensively weak last season and now need to face sides with the likes of Benzema, Firmino, Jota, and Saint-Maximin up top.
In fact, odds on the non PIF teams have lengthened versus those teams, so while there’s definitely value in the betting, it does look like a four-way contest.
Latest News
7-Eleven selects Jackpot.com as their official lottery partner
Online Lottery Courier Service Jackpot.com Announces Exclusive Collaboration with 7-Eleven, Inc.
Jackpot.com will serve as the official lottery courier service of 7-Eleven, Inc., initially launching in Ohio and Massachusetts
Jackpot.com – the online lottery courier service that allows consumers to purchase official state lottery tickets on their phone, tablet, or computer – announced today an exclusive collaboration with 7-Eleven Inc., the largest convenience store chain in the world, to serve as their official lottery courier service.
As part of the collaboration, 7-Eleven customers in Ohio and Massachusetts will be able to sign up and play lottery games and scratchers on the Jackpot.com app or website. The program will initially be launched in over 600 7-Eleven and Speedway stores in Ohio and Massachusetts, with a special launch promotion that gives 7-Eleven customers a free lottery ticket on their first deposit by using promo code, “7Eleven”.
“We’re thrilled to work with 7-Eleven, the leading retailer of lottery tickets in the country,” said Akshay Khanna, CEO and co-founder of Jackpot.com. “Leveraging our technology and innovation, we can provide additional convenience for their customers, while adding an additional source of revenue. A true win-win relationship for all.”
By launching in Ohio and Massachusetts in 2023 and 2024, respectively, Jackpot.com aims at adding another avenue for player convenience with one of the most widely recognized brands in the convenience-retailing space. With a presence in Ohio, the nation’s seventh-largest lottery market, and Massachusetts, whose state lottery produced $1.2 billion in net profit for the Commonwealth during the 2024 fiscal year, Jackpot.com’s collaboration with 7-Eleven represents an added layer of accessibility for players.
Jackpot.com remains committed to responsible play and has significantly invested in protocols by allowing customers of legal age to set spend limits and limits on daily deposits, all while providing access to local and national responsible gambling resources, self-exclusion, self-suspension and automated notifications that offer help should problematic behavior be detected. Jackpot.com is also the only lottery courier service to launch with an iCap certification from the National Council on Problem Gambling.
To learn more, visit jackpot.com. First-time users can also download the official Jackpot.com Lottery App on the iOS or Android App Stores, where available.
eSports
The World Esports Summit 2024 Is Here!
The IESF World Esports Summit returns this December to Busan, South Korea. Hosted at the Busan Esports Arena (BRENA) from December 5-6, the Summit will bring together prominent figures from Esports, global brands, government officials, and sports executives for a deep dive into the current Esports trends, its rapid transformations, and future challenges.
This year’s theme, “Building Bridges, Not Barriers, Through the Power of Esports,” will highlight the role of Esports in uniting cultures, ideas, and industries. Under the slogan “We Empower Success,” the
Summit provides a great platform for Esports experts to engage in meaningful discussions and sessions, sharing their insights on trends and presenting forward-looking ideas for our industry.
The event, strategically timed at the close of the competitive season, presents a perfect environment for reflection on the year’s biggest events, industry shifts, and the next steps for Esports. Attendees can follow the expert’s perspectives on topics like:
- (R)Evolution in Esports
- East Meets West
- Esports Integrity: The Role of Referees
- The Rise of International Esports Competitions
- (In Korean) Korea’s Secret Sauce etc.
Also, featured at this year’s event are the IESF World Esports Training Camp and the World Esports Referee Academy.
These are very important IESF programs that are aimed at advancing the skills and professional standards of the next generation of Esports leaders.
Join us in Busan for two days designed to inspire, connect, and empower the international Esports community.
Registration for the World Esports Summit is free and open to all interested attendees.
To register, please complete our online registration form: iesf.formstack.com/forms/wes2024_participation_registration
See you in Busan!
eSports
Akhil Sarin CMO at Easygo named as key note at ICE Esports Conference
Clarion Gaming has confirmed that Akhil Sarin CMO at Easygo, the technology powerhouse behind the success of global brands Stake and Kick will headline the Esports & Games Conference (EGC) taking place on 21 January as part of the ICE Barcelona experience. As a key member of the executive team, Akhil Sarin has been instrumental in securing the high-profile partnerships that have accelerated Stake’s growth, including the Stake F1 team, UFC, Drake, and Premier League Everton FC.
Through these strategic alliances he has amplified Stake’s brand presence at the same time as creating unique, immersive player experiences, in the process setting new industry benchmarks.
Announcing the high profile speaker Will Harding, Head of Esports at Clarion Gaming said: “Securing Akhil Sarin as EGC key note at ICE Barcelona represents a remarkable opportunity for our attendees to gain invaluable insight into cutting-edge strategies in digital and influencer marketing .
“Akhil’s expertise with Stake and Kick.com embodies the forward-thinking, innovative approach that defines the digital marketing landscapes. His participation underscores the calibre of knowledge-sharing that we are committed to delivering at ICE and he is sure to both inspire our attendees and elevate their strategic perspective.”
Looking ahead to ICE Barcelona, Akhil Sarin stated: “Collaborating with Clarion Gaming at ICE Barcelona is an exciting opportunity to showcase Stake’s journey and continued focus on bold partnerships and creative marketing strategies that resonate with audiences.”
He added “The EGC is a vital platform for exchanging transformative ideas and shaping the future of gaming and entertainment. I look forward to discussing Stake’s vision and collaborating with industry leaders to inspire growth and innovation across the sector.”
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