We ran CS2 Intel Extreme Masters Rio 2024 through a SuperComputer to predict the final stages — with Neymar’s FURIA team set to cause more massive shocks on home soil

• Natus Vincere and Team Vitality are heavy favourites with a 29.7% and 23.5% chance of winning in Rio, respectively
• However, FURIA — the hometown team backed by Brazil star Neymar — have been the tournament’s biggest overachievers in the group stage and are on set to cause an upset
• G2 on the other hand are the biggest underachievers, crashing out in the group stage to hurt their chances of going into the Major season as top seeds
• FURIA were given just an 20.9% chance of making the playoffs on home soil while G2 had been ranked as third favourites to win in Rio before the tournament with a 19.3% chance of glory

Natus Vincere (NaVi) remain the overall favourites to come on top at Intel Extreme Masters Rio 2024 according to the CSDB.gg CS2 Tournament SuperComputer but FURIA, the Brazilian team co-owned by Neymar, are on course to threaten a serious upset on their home turf.

They have already stunned the competition by beating NaVi in a group to secure passage directly through to the semi-finals, with G2 Esports the biggest underachievers in the opening rounds.

G2 had been a team rated as the third favourites to seize glory in Rio before the tournament only to fail to even make the playoffs. Team Vitality are still second only to NaVi according to the SuperComputer’s rating of who can win but FURIA are backed to knock them out in the semifinals to go to the decider for a dramatic rematch with NaVi to decide who will end the tournament as champions.

A total of $250,000 in prize money and a spot at IEM Katowice 2025 are at stake for the winning side, and after NaVi’s loss to G2 Esports in the Blast Fall Final they will be gunning for a chance to bounce back in style. Vitality on the other hand will be chasing their first title since IEM Cologne.

FURIA, the hometown heroes, are in the mix to potentially upset the odds and after entering the tournament with only a 20.9% chance of even making the playoffs now find themselves third favourites to win the whole thing after their heroics in the group stage.

Intel Extreme Masters Rio 2024 predicted by the CSDB.gg CS2 Tournament SuperComputer

• Final: Natus Vincere (29.7%) to beat FURIA (17.6%)
• Semifinal 1: FURIA (41.0%) to beat Team Vitality (40.7%)
• Semifinal 2: Natus Vincere (48.1%) to beat HEROIC (33.0%)
• Quarterfinal 1: Team Vitality (63.8%) to beat MOUZ (36.2%)
• Quarterfinal 2: Natus Vincere (67.0%) to beat Virtus.pro (33.0%)

Playoffs

• Natus Vincere – 29.7% to become champion; 48.1% to make final; 67.0% to make semi-final
• Team Vitality – 23.5% to become champion; 40.7% to make final; 63.8% to make semi-final
• FURIA – 17.6% to become champion; 41.0% to make final
• HEROIC – 11.3% to become champion; 33.0% to make final
• Virtus Pro – 9.7% to become champion; 18.9% to make final; 33.0% to make semi-final
• MOUZ – 8.2% to become champion; 18.3% to make final; 36.2% to make semi-final

It had been quite the run for NaVi prior to Rio despite their loss to G2 at the Blast Fall Final, with back to back grand finals in recent weeks.

Their momentum was immediately slowed by FURIA who got the home turf buff to shock them with a 2-0 in the Upper-Final to skip straight into the semis.

FURIA’s last appearance in a semi-final in front of a Brazilian crowd came at IEM Rio in 2022 where they lost 2-1 to Cadians Heroic after beating Navi in the quarters. They also lost to Heroic in the quarters of the same tournament in 2023 and will be hoping to get all the way to the final this year.

They are now third favourites to take the event with NaVi and Team Vitality still first and second favourites coming into the playoffs, even after slipping up against FURIA and Heroic, respectively.

Vitality have experience at recovering in this competition. They won IEM Rio 2023 from the quarters and will be looking to go back to back in Rio in 2024.

The MVP race is on too with Vitality’s ‘Zywoo’ currently on a 1.54 rating after five maps. He will be looking to take his career total to 21 tying the all-time record currently held by s1mple.

Another MVP would also be a massive step towards taking a record-breaking fourth HLTV number one award for the best player of the year for 2024.

FURIA could cause an upset here too though with home boy KSCERATO on a 1.56 rating after six maps.

The MVP award will almost always goes to the winning team’s best player and he could pick up his first career MVP on home soil should FURIA continue to confound expectations. Neymar would be proud!

How was the CSDB.gg CS2 Tournament SuperComputer created?

The CSDB.gg CS2 Tournament SuperComputer is a predictive model created using world ranking points, team quality ratings and performance trends. An element of randomness is also included in the model to avoid the best teams and players always winning, to reflect the fact that upsets can happen.

Every tournament is simulated 1,000 times with the results aggregated into a percentage rating of the chances teams or players have to achieve the predicted result.

CSDB.gg CS2 Tournament SuperComputer playoffs forecast in full

Elimination stage: