• Natus Vincere and Team Vitality are heavy favourites with a 29.7% and 23.5% chance of winning in Rio, respectively
• However, FURIA — the hometown team backed by Brazil star Neymar — have been the tournament’s biggest overachievers in the group stage and are on set to cause an upset
• G2 on the other hand are the biggest underachievers, crashing out in the group stage to hurt their chances of going into the Major season as top seeds
• FURIA were given just an 20.9% chance of making the playoffs on home soil while G2 had been ranked as third favourites to win in Rio before the tournament with a 19.3% chance of glory

Natus Vincere (NaVi) remain the overall favourites to come on top at Intel Extreme Masters Rio 2024 according to the CSDB.gg CS2 Tournament SuperComputer but FURIA, the Brazilian team co-owned by Neymar, are on course to threaten a serious upset on their home turf.

They have already stunned the competition by beating NaVi in a group to secure passage directly through to the semi-finals, with G2 Esports the biggest underachievers in the opening rounds.

G2 had been a team rated as the third favourites to seize glory in Rio before the tournament only to fail to even make the playoffs. Team Vitality are still second only to NaVi according to the SuperComputer’s rating of who can win but FURIA are backed to knock them out in the semifinals to go to the decider for a dramatic rematch with NaVi to decide who will end the tournament as champions.

A total of $250,000 in prize money and a spot at IEM Katowice 2025 are at stake for the winning side, and after NaVi’s loss to G2 Esports in the Blast Fall Final they will be gunning for a chance to bounce back in style. Vitality on the other hand will be chasing their first title since IEM Cologne.

FURIA, the hometown heroes, are in the mix to potentially upset the odds and after entering the tournament with only a 20.9% chance of even making the playoffs now find themselves third favourites to win the whole thing after their heroics in the group stage.

Intel Extreme Masters Rio 2024 predicted by the CSDB.gg CS2 Tournament SuperComputer

• Final: Natus Vincere (29.7%) to beat FURIA (17.6%)
• Semifinal 1: FURIA (41.0%) to beat Team Vitality (40.7%)
• Semifinal 2: Natus Vincere (48.1%) to beat HEROIC (33.0%)
• Quarterfinal 1: Team Vitality (63.8%) to beat MOUZ (36.2%)
• Quarterfinal 2: Natus Vincere (67.0%) to beat Virtus.pro (33.0%)

Playoffs

• Natus Vincere – 29.7% to become champion; 48.1% to make final; 67.0% to make semi-final
• Team Vitality – 23.5% to become champion; 40.7% to make final; 63.8% to make semi-final
• FURIA – 17.6% to become champion; 41.0% to make final
• HEROIC – 11.3% to become champion; 33.0% to make final
• Virtus Pro – 9.7% to become champion; 18.9% to make final; 33.0% to make semi-final
• MOUZ – 8.2% to become champion; 18.3% to make final; 36.2% to make semi-final

It had been quite the run for NaVi prior to Rio despite their loss to G2 at the Blast Fall Final, with back to back grand finals in recent weeks.

Their momentum was immediately slowed by FURIA who got the home turf buff to shock them with a 2-0 in the Upper-Final to skip straight into the semis.

FURIA’s last appearance in a semi-final in front of a Brazilian crowd came at IEM Rio in 2022 where they lost 2-1 to Cadians Heroic after beating Navi in the quarters. They also lost to Heroic in the quarters of the same tournament in 2023 and will be hoping to get all the way to the final this year.

They are now third favourites to take the event with NaVi and Team Vitality still first and second favourites coming into the playoffs, even after slipping up against FURIA and Heroic, respectively.

Vitality have experience at recovering in this competition. They won IEM Rio 2023 from the quarters and will be looking to go back to back in Rio in 2024.

The MVP race is on too with Vitality’s ‘Zywoo’ currently on a 1.54 rating after five maps. He will be looking to take his career total to 21 tying the all-time record currently held by s1mple.

Another MVP would also be a massive step towards taking a record-breaking fourth HLTV number one award for the best player of the year for 2024.

FURIA could cause an upset here too though with home boy KSCERATO on a 1.56 rating after six maps.

The MVP award will almost always goes to the winning team’s best player and he could pick up his first career MVP on home soil should FURIA continue to confound expectations. Neymar would be proud!

How was the CSDB.gg CS2 Tournament SuperComputer created?

The CSDB.gg CS2 Tournament SuperComputer is a predictive model created using world ranking points, team quality ratings and performance trends. An element of randomness is also included in the model to avoid the best teams and players always winning, to reflect the fact that upsets can happen.

Every tournament is simulated 1,000 times with the results aggregated into a percentage rating of the chances teams or players have to achieve the predicted result.

CSDB.gg CS2 Tournament SuperComputer playoffs forecast in full

Elimination stage:

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Esports betting provider to drive key discussions and compete for awards in Warsaw

DATA.BET, a prominent provider in the competitive betting industry, will participate in the upcoming European Gaming Congress 2024 (EGC), organized by Hipther. The renowned event, held in Warsaw on October 15-16, brings together key players from the gaming, esports, blockchain, AI, and fintech industries across Europe to discuss the sector’s most pressing trends and challenges. DATA.BET’s team will present the latest developments in esports betting and take center stage in a key panel discussion.

At the congress, Otto Bonning, the Head of Sales at DATA.BET, will participate in a panel discussion, “The Future of Esports: Opportunities and Challenges.” As the panel moderator, Otto will lead conversations with other experts, exploring the potential growth of esports and highlighting the strategic importance of esports betting in the evolving iGaming ecosystem.

Also, DATA.BET supports the event, contributing to Badge, Bracelet & Networking Break Sponsor categories. These efforts underscore the company’s commitment to facilitating meaningful industry interactions and enhancing attendees’ experience.

Moreover, DATA.BET has been shortlisted for two notable awards at the European iGaming Excellence Awards 2024, which will be held on the first evening of the congress. The company has been nominated as Best Esports Betting Provider in 2024 and Innovation in iGaming Technology in 2024 (Player Props). These nominations highlight companies leadership in esports betting and its steady contributions to technological advancements within the iGaming industry.

The upcoming conference provides DATA.BET with a valuable platform to connect with industry leaders, share insights and showcase its latest advancements in esports betting. Otto Bonning, Head of Sales, stated, “The EGC 2024 is crucial for exchanging ideas, sharing expertise, and discussing the future of esports betting. It also allows us to highlight our ongoing efforts to improve our solutions and meet the evolving needs of the industry.”