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Myth-Busting UNLV Study Reveals that Gamblers Can’t Detect Slot Machine Payout Percentages

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Myth-Busting UNLV Study Reveals that Gamblers Can’t Detect Slot Machine Payout Percentages
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As casino operators optimize the house advantage, a new UNLV study contradicts long-held beliefs about a player’s ability to detect differences in how much – and how often – a slot machine pays.

 

It’s a common sight on casino floors: patrons jumping from slot machine to slot machine before eventually hunkering down at a game that’s due for the next big payout. But can players – even the regulars who frequent a particular property – really tell the difference between the house edge on one game from that of another?

Nope. At least not according to a series of recent studies led by Anthony Lucas, a UNLV Hospitality College professor and former gaming industry operations analyst.

For the past several years, Lucas and colleague Katherine Spilde from San Diego State University have taken to casino floors on multiple properties in the U.S., Australia, and Mexico to investigate. Their results contradict long-held beliefs by casino operators about a player’s ability to detect differences in how much – and how often – a slot machine pays.

“I think some operators are naturally and understandably cautious of new information that challenges traditional industry practices,” said Lucas. “But we must consider how we know what we know. This is where our work takes on a Moneyball-like aspect – questioning the wisdom of widely held beliefs when data show that a new way of thinking may be better.”

In their latest study, the UNLV-led research team compared two pairs of reel slot games at a “locals” casino in suburban Sydney, Australia, where all wagering occurs on electronic gaming devices.

Their process is relatively straightforward: take two identical slot machines, positioned in similar places on a casino floor, but vary the par – the percent of total coin-in that the machine keeps over time. For example, if the par on a game is set at 10 percent, the machine would be expected to retain $10 of every $100 wagered, on average, over the long term. But in the short term, this rarely happens, increasing the difficulty of par detection.

For this study, researchers compared the daily performance of pairings for the games “Tokyo Rose” and “Dragon’s Fortune X” over a nine-month period. The pars within each pairing ranged from 7.98 percent on the low end to 14.93 percent on the high end.

Researchers measured daily coin-in for each machine as well as its T-win, a formula that multiplies coin-in and par to calculate a machine’s expected value, or its theoretical win. If, over the course of the nine-month test, regular players could detect a difference in the pars, this comparison would reveal whether (and how much) players migrated from higher par to lower par games.

As Lucas predicted, differences between the high and low par games remained stable throughout the length of the study, which meant that there was no statistically significant indication of play migration.

And while the lower par machines had more coin-in over the course of the study period, the T-win was greater on average for the high par machines. The positive impact from the elevated T-win on revenue for the higher par machines more than compensated for the decline in coin-in on those machines.

“Casino operators should take note of the substantial increases in T-win, as they are responsible for optimizing revenues, not coin-in,” said Lucas.

The results were also consistent with findings from the team’s previous studies, which analyzed 11 pairs of games over 180 days at gaming properties in U.S., Mexico and Australia.

So, other than busting one of gaming’s great myths, why does this matter?

Pars are an important factor for casinos looking to optimize revenues, as the bulk of slot revenues come from reel slots, and a lion’s share of a casino’s overall profits come from slot operations. While there are exceptions to this rule, it is true for most of the world’s casinos.

“Ultimately, operators are responsible for optimizing slot revenues, which is no simple task,” Lucas said. “Knowing which par will produce the greatest win is most helpful, but the optimization issue becomes more complex when the possibility of player detection is introduced.”

That’s where industry perspective is mixed, as operators have expressed concerns that short-term gains from higher pars could lead to long-term losses as players leave perceived “tight” slot floors for the greener pastures of their competitors.

To account for this concern, researchers extended length of time from previous work, from six months to nine months. They also expanded the difference in pars between matched pairs from 4.9 percent in the initial study to 6.95 percent in the current study.

In a concurrent study, the researchers compared the Australian data with four, two-game pairings at two similarly situated casinos in Mexico. Par differences for those games were even more drastic – ranging from 7.98 to 8.9 percent.

Despite these factors, in both instances the results still found no evidence of players moving away from higher-par machines to their low-par counterparts, and the high-par games continued to post substantially greater revenues.

“Put simply, our results suggest that greater pars produce greater revenues, without the risk of brand damage resulting from ‘price’ detection,” Lucas said.

Full Study

The study, “Impacts of increased house advantages on reel slots,” was recently published online in the International Journal of Contemporary Hospitality Management.

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SKS365 keeps investing in people: GROW People Management Program took the next level

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11 experienced people managers from the SKS365 group’s 4 locations gathered last week in Belgrade for the new GROW People Management Program. From 15 th to 19 th of April, through trainings, discussions, and social connections, people had the opportunity to further grow individually and as a team, while enjoying Belgrade’s city center and rivers.

Created in 2023 with the purpose of building foundation people management skills across the organization, GROW initiative evolved this year by including a new, advanced program for experienced people managers to further consolidate their skills and prepare for future opportunities.

Building and fostering connections, sharing experiences, and enjoying team building experiences – all these activities have been part of the GROWpmp agenda for the 11 people managers coming from Commercial, Product and Development, Finance, and Sportsbook departments of the group’s 4 locations – Malta, Italy, Austria, Serbia.

GROWpmp included a variety of topics that people managers in SKS365 recognized as the key areas for management development. Topics such as influence through communication, team effectiveness, DEI, through to presentation skills and business topics like understanding finance and management reporting, were delivered with the support of external professionals and internal experts, while designed and organized by the SKS365 People & Culture team.

 

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Kindred’s Share of Revenue from High-risk Players Shows Slight Increase

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Kindred Group plc’s (Kindred) share of revenue from high-risk players showed a slight increase to 3.2% (Q4 2023 3.1%) in the first quarter of 2024. Compared to the first quarter of 2023, the high-risk revenue share decreased marginally. The percentage of detected customers who exhibited improved behaviour after interventions came in at 87.1% (compared to 87.4% in Q4 2023 and 83.0% in Q1 2023). This sustained trajectory in the improvement effect after interventions, observed over an extended period, serves as a testament to the strong dedication and collective efforts throughout the company. It reflects Kindred’s ongoing commitment to fostering positive change within the industry.

“We continue to see our share of revenue from high-risk players fluctuate quarter to quarter, and we are working closely with all teams across the company to support customers towards a more sustainable gambling experience. However, it is encouraging to see that our Journey towards Zero data has steadily decreased since 2020. A similar trend can be seen across the healthier gambling behaviour effect after interventions. This tells us two things: our work is paying off, but we need to continue to push ourselves to propel a sustainable progression,” Alexander Westrell, Director of Communications at Kindred Group, said.

“It was very encouraging to witness the open and transparent discussions at the Sustainable Gambling Conference in London on 20 March, where those with lived experience shared their important stories. Also, it is evident that technology is moving forward, and will provide greater opportunities to detect and intervene in the future. We hope to see more regulators engage with the industry and with experts to secure a more sustainable industry for everyone,” Alexander Westrell added.

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PENN Entertainment Names Aaron LaBerge as Chief Technology Officer

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PENN Entertainment announced that Aaron LaBerge has been named Chief Technology Officer (CTO) effective July 1, 2024, subject to customary regulatory approvals. Mr. LaBerge will report directly to PENN CEO & President Jay Snowden.

In his new role, Mr. LaBerge will be responsible for driving the technology strategy and execution for PENN, while leading the multinational team of technologists and serving as the key business leader for the company’s Interactive division.

Mr. LaBerge spent more than 20 years at The Walt Disney Company, in two stints separated by five and a half years as a technology entrepreneur. He was most recently President & Chief Technology Officer for Disney Entertainment and ESPN where he was responsible for driving all technology and product development in support of The Walt Disney Company’s two media divisions. In that role, he helped set the vision and strategic leadership for how Disney uses technology to enable storytelling and innovation, drive its business, and create unparalleled consumer experiences with entertainment and sports content.

“We are thrilled to have someone of Aaron’s caliber join our PENN executive team. Having overseen a global organization of thousands of engineers, product developers, designers, technologists, and data scientists that created some of the largest scale and most successful media properties in the world, there is no better candidate to lead our Technology and Interactive division into its future. I know Aaron is looking forward to working with Todd George, our head of operations, and our entire Executive Team to continue growing our position as a leader in online gaming, sports betting, and digital sports media,” Mr. Snowden said.

“I’m excited to join another talented team at PENN Interactive and lead our technology strategy. PENN Entertainment is at the forefront of the fast-changing gaming and sports media industry. I plan to use my experience from Disney and ESPN to help make ESPN BET an essential piece of the sports fan experience. Together, we’ll push the limits and redefine how fans interact with sports and gaming,” Mr. LaBerge said.

Prior to his most recent role at the Walt Disney Company, Mr. LaBerge was Executive Vice President and Chief Technology Officer at ESPN from 2015 to 2018. At ESPN he played an instrumental role in the growth of ESPN’s consumer-facing digital media products and services – leading many of ESPN’s most ambitious and challenging projects and helping establish ESPN’s position as the leader in digital sports and innovative sports technology development. He was a key architect in the design, development, and engineering of ESPN’s state-of-the-art facilities in Bristol, CT; Los Angeles, CA; Charlotte, NC; and Austin, TX, as well as data centers and infrastructure that connect those facilities around the world, as well as the technology design and development to support the launch of the multi-platform SEC Network.

Between 2007 and 2012, LaBerge was co-founder and CEO of Fanzter, Inc. – a venture-funded consumer software and digital product development company. At Fanzter, he directed all day-to-day operations and led the development and launch of a variety of consumer-focused internet and mobile products, ground-breaking social and commerce technologies and more.

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